Raffensperger's Uphill Battle: Can He Save the Georgia GOP?

Brad Raffensperger, the Secretary of State of Georgia, is navigating a challenging political landscape as he attempts to save his political future amidst the growing influence of the MAGA movement within the Georgia GOP. Raffensperger rose to national prominence by defying President Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, but he is now carefully avoiding the anti-Trump lane as he runs for governor.

Raffensperger's campaign strategy involves holding low-key events and focusing on issues such as capping property taxes, rather than harping on election security. He has also been touting his business background and Christian conservative values, in an effort to appeal to traditional Republican voters.

The Battle for the Soul of the GOP

Raffensperger's candidacy is seen as a test of whether the non-MAGA faction of the party can hold on in one of the nation's premier battleground states. The Georgia GOP has increasingly shifted towards the populist right, leaving Raffensperger struggling to break through in the governor's race. He is currently polling in third place behind Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire Rick Jackson.

The Rise of the MAGA Base

The MAGA base has grown significantly in Georgia, with many voters still questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election results. This has made it challenging for Raffensperger to gain traction, as he is seen as being at odds with the party's activist base. According to a recent POLITICO Poll, nearly 40% of Republican voters in Georgia believe that the 2020 election was stolen, while 25% have questions about the election's legitimacy.

Industry Implications and Expert Perspectives

Republican strategists and officials in Georgia are skeptical of Raffensperger's chances of success, citing the party's shift towards the populist right. "This is the party of Trump today — like it or not, it is — and I find it very difficult to see someone being able to be anti-Trump in a Republican primary and be successful," said Casey Cagle, a former Republican lieutenant governor.

However, Raffensperger maintains that he has a path to victory, citing his business background and Christian conservative values. He has also highlighted the changes he and state Republicans made to the state's election laws in 2021, which drew criticism from Democrats and the MLB.

Raffensperger's Path Forward

Raffensperger's campaign has been focused on suburban voters, particularly in counties such as Cobb County, which have flipped blue in recent years. He has been holding low-key events and touting his accomplishments as Secretary of State, such as streamlining professional licensing processes and improving election security.

While Raffensperger's chances of winning the primary are slim, his insistence that his lane — and version of the Republican Party — still exists is a testament to his persistence. "Brad Raffensperger never really stopped from 2022 on," said Gabriel Sterling, a Raffensperger ally who is running for Secretary of State. "He could have set up a foundation, gone around the country and just talked about democracy and he would have been applauded. Instead, he chose to go into the battle and fight."

In the end, Raffensperger's candidacy will be a test of whether the non-MAGA faction of the party can survive in a state that has increasingly shifted towards the populist right. If he were to lose the primary, his loss would be another nail in the coffin for an old-school GOP that continues to resist MAGA.